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Executive summary
This Paper explores the critical impact of climate change on Indian agriculture, emphasizing regional vulnerabilities and the need for adaptive strategies. With global crop yields projected to decline by up to 25% by 2050, India's agrarian economy, heavily reliant on seasonal rainfall, is particularly susceptible. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and water stress are already causing significant reductions in yields of key crops like wheat, rice, and maize.
Regional impacts reveal Punjab, the "Granary of India," experiencing wheat and paddy yield declines of 6–15% due to heat stress and water scarcity. Maharashtra faces maize yield losses of up to 20% because of erratic monsoons and droughts, while Karnataka's rainfed agriculture sees 10–15% reductions in crop yields owing to climate variability. Despite government initiatives such as the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) and the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), challenges persist, including slow implementation, limited reach, and inadequate farmer awareness.
The report recommends expanding micro-irrigation systems, soil health programs, and climate-resilient crop varieties as farmer-centric solutions. Strengthening governance through better institutional coordination, streamlined policies, and adaptive strategies is crucial. Additionally, promoting environmental measures like ESG practices, optimized planting schedules, and improved water management will help mitigate climate risks. The findings underscore the urgency of collective action to safeguard India's agricultural sector and ensure food security amidst a changing climate.
As we stand at the crossroads of policy and practice, the question remains: will we take decisive action to shield India's breadbasket from the storms of a changing climate, or will we let the fields of tomorrow bear the cost of inaction?
1.Introduction
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) emphasizes that global agricultural production faces significant risks, with yields potentially declining by up to 25% by 2050 due to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns.
Agriculture, as the backbone of food security and rural livelihoods, is increasingly threatened by climate change, especially through its impacts on temperature and rainfall. The unpredictability of rainfall patterns, causing both droughts and floods, jeopardizes agricultural output by disrupting critical planting and harvesting cycles, exacerbating water scarcity, and reducing soil fertility, thereby increasing vulnerability to food insecurity.
The historical lessons from events such as the Dust Bowl in the United States and present-day climate challenges underscore the pressing need for robust global and national strategies. Regions heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture, particularly in developing nations, are at the forefront of this crisis.
India’s agriculture, which heavily relies on monsoonal rains, is witnessing marked challenges due to climate variability. Extensive studies and crop simulations have revealed troubling projections for major crops like rice, wheat, and maize. Though crop yields have increased dramatically in recent decades, there would have been more improvement without climate change.
This variability significantly impacts the health of millions by altering nutrient consumption patterns, further exacerbating the socio-economic challenges faced by farmers who already contend with limited resources and unstable incomes.
2.Broad overview of Climate Change Impact on grain production in the Indian States
India, being an agrarian economy, faces unique vulnerabilities to climate change due to its dependence on seasonal rainfall and regional climatic variability. When considering the net impacts of climate on food production, we need to consider three key factors: higher concentrations of CO2, warmer temperatures, and changes in rainfall.
Changing rainfall patterns means crops could experience more frequent or intense drought or excess water. Wheat tends to be much more tolerant of water stress than crops like maize, so it experiences lower yield declines under drought.
Northern Plains: The Northern Plains, critical for wheat production, is severely impacted by rising temperatures during critical growth phases, leading to heat stress that reduces grain size and productivity. States like Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh witness reduced wheat yields due to heat stress during critical growth phases.
Eastern India: Eastern Indian regions such as West Bengal and Odisha are heavily reliant on paddy cultivation, but erratic monsoons increasingly disrupt agricultural cycles. Excessive rainfall causes waterlogging and soil salinization, significantly reducing yields. Although these states are not major producers of wheat or maize, their paddy fields play a crucial role in regional food systems.
Southern Plateau: Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu face drought-like conditions, impacting the water-intensive paddy and maize crops.
Western Regions: In the Western Regions, desertification, declining water tables, and extreme weather events hinder agricultural productivity. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan are severely affected states in the region.
Himalayan States: Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh struggle with shorter growing seasons and altered precipitation patterns. These changes disrupt traditional grain farming systems, reducing resilience and productivity in this ecologically fragile region.
These widespread impacts exacerbate food security challenges, economic vulnerabilities for farmers, and increased regional disparities in agricultural productivity.
The states of Punjab, Maharashtra, and Karnataka have been selected to highlight the regional impacts of climate change due to their unique climatic, geographical, and agricultural characteristics:
Impact on Punjab
Punjab, known as the "Granary of India," Punjab's agriculture is predominantly wheat and paddy-centric, contributing significantly to India's grain stock. However, the state faces extreme temperature variations and water stress, jeopardizing its role in food security.
The average temperature in Punjab has increased by approximately 0.6°C over the last two decades, leading to heat stress during critical growth phases. Increased temperature exacerbates water evaporation from the soil and reduces photosynthetic efficiency, ultimately resulting in lower yields and compromised grain quality. Additionally, erratic rainfall patterns characterized by intense rainfall events followed by prolonged dry spells disrupt sowing and harvesting schedules, further affecting crop productivity.
Impact on Maharashtra
Maharashtra, one of the largest producers of maize, Maharashtra is emblematic of semi-arid regions in India. Its diverse topography and dependence on rain-fed agriculture make it a representative case of climate vulnerability in central India.
Annual mean temperatures have risen by 1°C to 2.5°C in most regions, causing heat stress during critical crop growth stages. Erratic monsoons, including excessive rainfall in some districts and prolonged droughts in others, disrupt sowing, germination, and harvesting cycles. Maharashtra has experienced a consistent rise in annual mean temperatures, increasing by 1°C to 2.5°C over the past two decades. This rise has caused significant heat stress, particularly during critical crop growth phases such as flowering and grain filling.
Impact on Karnataka
Known for its diverse agro-climatic zones, Karnataka plays a vital role in India’s agricultural landscape, particularly in the production of wheat, paddy, and maize.
However, over 80% of the state’s farms rely on rain-fed agriculture, making them highly vulnerable to climate variability. Over the last two decades, Karnataka has experienced a 1.3°C rise in average temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns. These changes have resulted in significant disruptions to crop productivity, impacting both quality and yield while exacerbating challenges like water scarcity and heat stress.
Regional Shifts in Grain Production
Punjab
The increase in temperature has led to reduced grain quality and size. The average yield has decreased by about 6%, with extreme weather events causing losses up to 15%.
Quality is compromised due to heat stress and pest pressures, resulting in an average yield decline of around 8%, with severe droughts causing even greater losses.
This crop is particularly sensitive to temperature increases, leading to a projected yield decline of 13% by 2050, with significant losses during extreme weather years.
Maharashtra
Rising temperatures, with prolonged heat waves and warmer winters, has reduced the grain size and protein content. Worsening drought conditions have reduced the yield to 8-12%.
Excess rainfall causes flooding and pest outbreaks have damaged paddy crops over the years and because of which the yield has reduced to 10-15% in wet years.
During heat stress, the maize crop suffers pollination issues and this has led to kernel size reduction resulting in lower starch content. Extreme weather has dropped the yield to 15-20%.
Karnataka
Rising temperatures, particularly during the grain-filling stage, have caused terminal heat stress, leading to yield reductions of 10–15%. Drought-prone districts like Gadag and Raichur are especially affected due to limited water availability.
Erratic rainfall and higher night temperatures (>30°C) in Coastal Karnataka have led to grain sterility and discoloration. Flooding in regions like Udupi and Dakshina Kannada has worsened soil salinization, further reducing productivity
Shortened growing seasons and uneven rainfall have resulted in kernel deformity and discoloration. Semi-arid districts such as Haveri have experienced yield reductions of up to 15% due to prolonged moisture stress and heatwaves.
Comparative Analysis of Impact on crops (2004-2024)
Crop | Quality Impact | Quantity Impact (%) |
Wheat | Decreased grain size, lower protein content due to heat stress during flowering | Average yield decreased by 6% over the period; significant losses in extreme years (up to 15% in 2022) |
Reduced grain size and protein content | 8–12% yield drop in drought years | |
Decreased grain size, lower protein content due to heat stress | Yield reduced by 10–15% | |
Paddy | Grain quality reduced; increased susceptibility to pests due to stress conditions | Yield declined by approximately 8% overall; severe drought years saw reductions of up to 20% |
Poor grain filling, increased pest attacks | 10–15% yield reduction in wet years | |
Grain sterility, discoloration due to high night temperatures | Yield reduced by 20–25% | |
Maize | Kernel size reduced; lower starch content affecting market price | Projected decline of 13% by 2050; losses of up to 24% in years with extreme weather events |
Kernel size reduction, lower starch content | 15–20% drop in extreme weather years | |
Kernel deformity, discoloration | Yield reduced by 15% |
3.Initiatives and Gaps in Addressing Agricultural Challenges Through Policy Interventions
The Indian government has also undertaken several initiatives to address the impact of climate change on agriculture, aiming to mitigate risks and ensure sustainable farming practices. These schemes focus on improving irrigation, soil health, crop insurance, and climate-resilient practices. Below is a detailed analysis of four key initiatives, including their benefits and limitations.
Name | Objective | Achievements | Limitations |
Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) | Enhance irrigation efficiency, ensure water access for every farm, and focus on water conservation and expanding cultivable land under assured irrigation. | Over 2 million hectares brought under micro-irrigation; improved water-use efficiency in arid and semi-arid regions. | Regional imbalances favoring better-irrigated regions; slow implementation due to administrative delays; limited awareness among small and marginal farmers. |
Soil Health Card Scheme | Promote sustainable farming through soil health cards, providing soil nutrient analysis and crop-specific fertilizer recommendations. | Over 225 million soil health cards issued; reduced excessive fertilizer use, especially urea, by encouraging balanced nutrient application. | Insufficient soil testing labs causing delays; lack of technical knowledge among farmers; inadequate follow-up for sustained adherence to recommendations. |
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) | Promote climate-resilient agricultural practices, integrated farming systems, and water-use efficiency for sustained productivity. | Introduced resilient crop varieties and agroforestry practices, improved water management techniques among farmers. | Implementation challenges due to poor coordination between agencies; low awareness in remote areas; limited funding restricting scalability of successful pilots. |
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) | Provide financial support for crop loss due to natural calamities and encourage innovative agricultural practices with affordable premiums and comprehensive risk coverage. | Over 50 million farmers enrolled annually; ₹90,000 crore disbursed as claims; enhanced insurance coverage, reducing farmer distress. | Delayed payouts leaving farmers financially vulnerable; low private sector participation; limited reach due to awareness gaps and procedural hurdles; data inefficiencies. |
4.Bridging the Gaps: Addressing Limitations and Adapting to Climate Change
Farmer-Centric Social Approach:
The Focus should be on scaling up the implementation of micro-irrigation techniques like drip and sprinkler systems under National and State-Specific schemes. A strong emphasis, particularly done in drought-prone districts in India, is essential to enhance water use efficiency and educate farmers on sustainable practices. Simultaneously, promoting the adoption of drought-resistant and heat-tolerant crop varieties for paddy, maize, and wheat can mitigate climate variability and bolster agricultural resilience. Expanding soil testing infrastructure through a National Soil Health Card Scheme will improve nutrient management, reduce fertilizer misuse, and restore long-term soil fertility. Additionally, integrating digital platforms for beneficiary identification, fund disbursement, and program tracking can enhance transparency and reduce inefficiencies in government schemes. In addition to these, National and State Governments ought to launch region-specific capacity-building workshops to equip smallholder farmers with adaptive techniques like mixed cropping, zero tillage, and agroforestry, tailored for the nation’s various agro-climatic zones.
Environmental Approach:
Mandating ESG reporting for agricultural cooperatives and other Nodal bodies is crucial. Strong coordination of supply chains on a national scale is essential to ensure accountability on key metrics such as carbon emissions, water use, and fair labor practices. Adapting appropriate planting dates in response to climate change will help optimize crop cycles, as warmer temperatures necessitate earlier sowing in many regions to maximize yields. Bridging the yield gap by capacity-building and conscious scaling is equally critical, requiring improved access to irrigation, fertilizers, and other essential resources. By equipping farmers with best practices and advanced inputs, our nation’s various agro-climatic zones can significantly enhance productivity and resilience, safeguarding against the adverse impacts of climate variability.
Governance Approach:
Strengthen Institutional Capacity and Governance: Addressing the challenges of climate action requires enhancing institutional infrastructure through specialized training, skilled personnel, and adequate resource allocation, while overcoming bureaucratic inertia to streamline decision-making and accountability. Sustained political will and unbiased governance must align climate initiatives with broader state development agendas, fostering integration and efficiency. Additionally, institutionalizing cross-sectoral engagement through continuous stakeholder communication ensures robust frameworks, enhanced accountability, and effective implementation with minimal loopholes.
5.Commentary
Climate change poses serious threats to India's agriculture, but solutions are within reach. This paper highlights the urgent need to protect food security and farmer livelihoods. Rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall are already affecting key farming regions, but scientists have found ways to adapt, like developing crops that can withstand harsh conditions and improving water management.
To succeed, we need everyone to work together - the government, businesses, and farmers. We must strengthen our institutions, improve policies, and give farmers the knowledge and tools they need. We have a choice to make: act now to invest in the future of Indian farming, or face severe consequences later. The groundwork has been laid; now it's up to us to nurture these efforts into a sustainable future for India's food production.
Meet The Thought Leader
Siddesh Choudhary is a business development professional currently working at Meta Gravity. With experience in venture capital, consulting, and startups, he has worked at IndiGG, Accel, Meesho, and BCG, focusing on Web3, gaming, and fintech. An IIT Bombay graduate in Mechanical Engineering, he also led E-Cell IIT Bombay and authored Placements Playbook. His certifications include the Future CEOs Program and Ironman 70.3 Finisher. Passionate about the metaverse, he brings expertise in strategy, public speaking, and entrepreneurship.
Meet The Authors (GGI Fellows)
I am Nandini Rao Budhagavi, a B.A. LL. B (Hons.) graduate from the School of Law, Sastra Deemed University (July 2024). My law school internships fueled my passion for public policy, offering hands-on experience in legal research, judicial processes, and evidence-based policymaking. The GGI Impact Fellowship deepened my understanding of public policy and development consulting, equipping me with practical management skills and exposure to real-world projects. This experience strengthened my ability to apply strategic frameworks to global challenges, aligning with my goal of shaping policy discourse.
Beyond academics, I find creative expression in reading and writing. The publication of Yours in the Becoming marks a milestone in my literary journey. Playing tennis and the veena also serve as essential outlets, ensuring a balance between intellectual and personal well-being.
Sushmitha Reddy, a NIFT graduate with two years of professional experience, is passionate about exploring a career in policy consulting. With a curious mind and a creative spirit, she finds joy in watercolor painting and practicing yoga.
Vishal Aditya is a Law-School graduate currently working in a leading Mining company. His focus is on Legal, Secretarial and Policy-framing capabilities. He enjoys his free time by watching sports regularly and reading Tarot Cards for friends and family.
Shreya is contributing as a generalist and researcher at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), working in the domain of sustainability and energy transition. with an academic background in English Literature (Hons.) and a Master's in Sociology, combined with an internship under a Member of Parliament, GOI, she has cultivated a nuanced perspective on governance, policy dynamics, and their intersection with sustainable development.
Shaswata began by representing India in e-sports and launching a civic healthcare network during COVID-19. He has worked with non-profits, CSRs and UHIs at Dasra, led digital campaigns at Schbang and now contributing as a generalist at Rocket earning while piloting his own venture.
If you are interested in applying to GGI's Impact Fellowship program, you can access our application link here.
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